B.C. Enters an Era of Housing Restraint: Sales Stagnate as Population Growth Slows

After years of record growth, British Columbia’s housing market is showing clear signs of a slowdown. Through September 2025, conditions in the Lower Mainland remained subdued. MLS® home sales reached 2,783 units, the same level as last year, marking a 2% monthly decline once adjusted for seasonal factors. High mortgage rates and elevated prices, paired with ongoing economic uncertainty, have restrained demand, pushing activity to levels unseen since 2022. Year-to-date, transactions are down 12%, on track for a 10% annual drop — the weakest pace since 2000, largely driven by slower sales in the Fraser Valley.

Despite this, inventory remains elevated. Active listings rose 15% year over year, keeping the sales-to-active listings ratio firmly in buyer’s market territory at just 10.7%. Buyers have more choices but remain cautious, which continues to apply downward pressure on prices. The average home price in September stood at $1.166 million, flat from August but 1.1% lower year over year. While detached and townhouse prices have held relatively steady, apartments face stronger headwinds due to a surge of unsold new units. Analysts anticipate further price corrections in the coming months, even as possible interest rate cuts could provide partial relief.

A key factor shaping this shift is slowing population growth. For the first time in over a decade, B.C.’s population declined in Q2 2025 — dropping 0.04% to 5.7 million residents. This reversal follows three years of rapid expansion, driven previously by record non-permanent resident migration, which peaked at 532,000 in October 2024 but fell to 504,000 by July 2025. Decreases in work and study permit holders, combined with net emigration losses, contributed to the overall decline.

As population growth slows and housing supply builds, B.C. is entering a period of market restraint that could reshape both real estate and economic momentum in the province. For insights on how to navigate this evolving market — whether buying, selling, or investing — reach out to Jared Gibbons for expert guidance and a personalized strategy.